‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

The fourth quarter of 2005 began nearly two weeks ago, but last
weeks bulletin failed to mention the average sunspot numbers for the
quarter just ended. This is a normal quarterly exercise, as we hope
to spot trends in the solar cycle. Looking at the past two weeks,
the average daily sunspot numbers over the past week were up over 10
points to 21R7. Average daily solar flux rose, but also by a slight
degree, only two and a half points to 78R4. From the first quarter
of 2003 through the third quarter of 2005, the average daily sunspot
number was 120R3, 107R3, 110R2, 99R2, 72R9, 71R3, 69R3, 61, 46R1,
55R7 and 58. The average daily solar flux for the same period was
134R3, 124R2, 120R8, 137R4, 111R1, 99R5, 111, 104R8, 96R4, 93R1 and
93R6. We could almost convince ourselves that the cycle has already
bottomed out if we look at quarterly sunspot numbers this year.
Last years quarterly sunspot numbers dropped steadily from 72R9 at
the first quarter of 2004, to 71R3, 69R3 and 61. 2005 began with a
big drop, to 46R1 in the first quarter, then rose to 55R7 and 58.
Could this cycle really have hit bottom during the first quarter of
2005? The NOAA Space Environment Center Preliminary Report and
Forecast for October 4, which can be found on the www.sec.noaa
website in PDF format, shows the same smoothed sunspot number
history and prediction table on page 10 that it has shown for quite
some time now. In this table, the sunspot cycle appears to reach
minimum around December 2006 to January 2007. Sunspot numbers were
28, 31, 24, 16, 11, 25 and 17 with a mean of 21R7. 10R7 cm flux was
79R5, 78R8, 78R1, 78R9, 79R1, 77R6, and 76R8, with a mean of 78R4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 11, 22, 9, 10, 6 and 1 with a
mean of 9. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 2, 11, 16, 7, 7, 5
and 1, with a mean of 7‚

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰